holdyourthoughts

There are some very important questions that you can (and definitely should) ask yourself on a regular frequency. This aids in introspection. When people are in school or college they have term exams which help them judge if their progress on their education journey is reasonable. One of the problems of growing up is we stop asking ourselves that question. One probable cause is because we are not conditioned to ask questions of our progress ourselves. So, here is a ritual that I suggest everyone follow atleast once a year. It's best to choose significant days to do this like our birthdays, New Year or any such day. What you need is a pen and a blank sheet of paper and a quiet place to sit and contemplate. With paper and pen in hand ask yourself the first question, "What would I do for the rest of my life if I won the lottery for xxx amount today?" The amount can be anything that you think is more than enough for you. Think about this. Write what you would do if you did ...

Last week I completed Bill Bryson's Short History of Nearly Everything. It is a good book that tries to cover in one sweep the evolution of natural sciences. It starts of from the creation of the universe and goes on to explain the universe, planetary systems and other celestial phenomenon. It then moves on and covers diverse topics like Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Geology. It takes the user through a journey of how each of these subjects of study evolved over a period of time and also it's more illustrious practitioners. The book has very nice glimpses, in the form of anecdotes, into the lives of great scientists. It is a very good read and is sure to engage readers who are scientifically inclined.

I just completed Parag Parikh's new book titled "Value Investing and Behavioral Finance". It is a very nice book with examples of equity mis-pricing by the markets based on fear/greed. It explores various mental models of behavioral finance. It makes nice reading because the examples are from the Indian markets so familiarity is high. It has some interesting insights on index investing. Something that I had not known/thought about earlier. Parikh has put data from Sensex from 1979 to 2005 of stocks that were taken out of the index. The data suggests that companies that are taken out from the index have actually performed better over long term than the index! It is a good book to read for long term investors, specially if you are interested in investing in the Indian stock markets.

This weekend was great. Saturday we went to the Alumni Association of our school (AGCS). I met a lot of old friends after over 14 years. I met Irshad, Tabish, Hemant, Debarshi Ganguly, Durjoy Sengupta, Rajni and Kavita after 1995. It felt really nice to see these people. Sandip (Das) is now in Calcutta for a vacation. So, today we met at Tung Fong, Park Street. Sandip and his wife, Sudipta and his wife, Biswajit and me. Sanjoy and Chotu came late, nearly the time when it was time for Bishu and me to leave. It's nice and cold in Calcutta now, so it was good to go to Park Street in the evening. The good thing was I managed to come out without eating a lot, so the new year resolution is on track.

It is customary to make new year resolutions. So, here is my list. 1. Lose 5 kgs (or more) of weight - I have lost over 10 kgs in the last year. Down from 85kgs to around 75kgs now. Resolving to get it down to 70 kgs or less. 2. Exercise everyday (except Sundays - even God rested on Sunday!!) - Resolve to walk/exercise for 15-45 mins everyday. 3. Spend more time with family and friends - Add family time to the calendar!! 4. Read atleast 2 books per month - Make and maintain a list of books to be read. 5. Start practising meditation - Start working on meditating for atleast 5 mins everyday. Plan These are my resolutions for 2010. Not too many. The trick would be to stick to them and make them work.

The markets tanked and then recovered in 2009. And what a recovery it was. Stocks have gone up 3,4 times in the last 6 months. Not the frontliners but some of the midcaps. The frontliners are just about back to where they fell from in Jan 2008. So, in a span of 2 years people who have stayed invested in the market are back to even. Those who had the guts to buy when there was mayhem around have actually made stupendous returns. But actually most retail investors have lost money. They came to the party late and left early, trying desperately to recuperate some of their losses! The lessons from all this are: 1. Ignore the market. Focus on the businesses. 2. Buy when there is blood on the street (old jungle saying!!). 3. Sell when everyone and their uncles are buying (remember Reliance Power IPO?) 4. The money is made while buying, so make sure even if you get an average deal while selling, you still make money. 5. Over the long term, trading makes only one person rich - your broker!!

Over the last decade that I have been investing and trading in the stock markets, I have had the opportunity to try my hand at many approaches to make money. I have done long term investing (bottom-up stock picking), top-down stock picking, momentum trades, technical analysis, swing trading, day trading and derivatives (main options) trading. I have made and lost money in all of these endeavours. The only thing that I have gained in knowledge and an insight of what works for me in the stock market. And I have decided to stick to my knitting in the future. Firstly, I have put some portion of my portfolio in exchange traded index funds to capture the index returns. I have invested in both the Nifty and the Junior Nifty ETFs. For direct stocks, I am investing in companies with the following characterisitcs:  1. I look only at small or mid cap companies which can grow in the future.    2. Reasonably high RoCE or RoE with stable return ratios  3. Consistent record of sales and profits ove...