Saturday, October 02, 2010

Indian Markets - Crystal ball gazing

Here is what I came yup with by crystal-ball gazing (the crystal ball is now pretty cloudy and filled with dust, but sure is some fun to look at it once in a while...

  • Sensex/Nifty will make a dash for the all-time high sometime soon (maybe as early as October end)
  • Either breach it or turn back just short of it.
  • A bout of profit booking follows. Indices go down 10%-15% (back to around 18K-18.5K)
  • Main indices remain sideways for the next couple of quarters.
  • Mid caps move up from now as the last few weeks the valuation gap has widened.
  • Sometime after 2-3 quarters, the next up move starts for the main indices. By that time, PE is down to about 22 (which is still high but certainly not hitting the roof).

One point to consider is that the 2008 debacle is still fresh in the minds of most people, and as long as it remains, the sentiment of fear will be there. That will prevent the markets from having a runaway rally or a breakneck fall. I sure hope I am right!!!

Note: The only problem with making predictions is that it messes with your thought process. It encourages the commitment and consistency bias and also the anchoring bias and thus creates a lollapalooza effect.

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