Saturday, February 16, 2008

My takeaways from Investor Camp in Kolkata

P.N.Vijay

* Look at overall economy for indication of sustainable growth
* Look at interest rates very closely as they are negatively correlated to equities. i.e, when interest rates go down, equities go up
* Fundamentals take time to develop
* Don't leverage yourself

Midcap investing has the best risk/reward in today's market

Midcaps bets can be of various types:
  • Plain Vanilla : Very fast paced growth in a good sector and will soon turn big enough to attract institution attention. e.g. Punj Lloyd, GMR infra, JP Associates
  • Mergers and Demergers: COmpanies create value by merging and demerging. e.g TV18, KEC
  • Overseas Acquisition: Often leads to rapid increase in size and mcap/sales
  • Restructuring: Improving balance sheet by restructuring debt
  • New Story: New sunrise industries e.g. Educomp, Praj, MIC Electronics, Everest Kanto

Opportunities in 2008: Karuturi Networks, Shriram Transport Finance, Provogue

Ashwini Gujral

* Manage your capital so that no loss is your final loss.

* Only three things are required for successful trading: Method, Capital, Discipline

* The moving average indicator is a trend following indicator.

Fundamentals are known after a lot of the upmove in the stock is over.

Moving average indicators for traders
10/13 EMA - short term traders
23/30 EMA - swing traders
50 EMA - intermediate trend trader
200 EMA - long term trader

Ashwini's picks for 2008: Auto (Tata Motors, Maruti, Ashok Leyland), Tech (Satyam, TCS, Mphasis), Sugar (Bajaj Hindustan, Balrampur Chini), PSU Banking (SBI, PNB,BOI)

His word of caution: Do not over leverage. Protect your downside in 2008. 2008 looks to be like a year of consolidation.

Rajat Bose

* Trade what you see, not what you think
* Focus on movement of prices above everything else; your trades get settled on the basis of prices and nothing else
* Everything else is secondary: news, views, indicators, volumes etc
* Trade management is more important than entry into a trade
- cut your losses; let profits run
- stop losses should be predetermined and strictly followed
- NEVER average a loser
- NEVER meet a margin call
- Increase your position in a trending market
- Reduce the position size in a volatile market and/or when you are on a losing streak

* Preserve your capital
* Aim at attaining consistent profitability
* Grab any supernormal profits you get

Rajat's picks for 2008: Balrampur Chini, Jeyashree & Sakthi tea, Upper Ganges Sugar, Selan Exploration, GMDC, Gujarat NRE Coke, Techno Electric, Universal Cables, Cent BoP, City Union Bank, Karnataka Bank, XL Telecom, RelCom, Gold ETF

Angel Broking House View

New emerging theme: Agriculture

Stock Picks: ITC, HUL, Coromandel Fertilizers, RCF, Ralis India, Autoline Ind, BASF, BOC, Clariant Chem, Gillette, GMM Pfaudler, Honda Siel, Jindal SAW, MRF, SCI, TNPL, Tata Motors, Vardhaman Textiles, Finolex Cables, Uniflex Cables, RPG Cables, Merck, Pfizer

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