I was reading an article recently in BusinessWeek which quoted some senior HR leaders across industries saying that employees join companies and leave managers. I have heard that statement in all the people management workshops. But, I am not sure I completely agree with the statement. It may be true in more mature labour markets like US, UK etc, but in emerging markets like India, the scenario is not really true.
In my experience, employees decide to leave because either a "push" or a "pull" effect. Let me explain. A "push" effect is when a person is 'pushed' away because he/she does not get sufficient opportunities, salary, job role etc in his existing job. Push effect is a demonstration of employees leaving managers rather than companies. A 'pull' effect is when a person is 'pulled' away by opportunities,salary,job role etc that is available in other companies.
What I have seen is that in emerging markets like India, the 'pull' effect is much much more predominant. Good people are fewer in number as related to the growth in job opportunities. So, the demand for good people are huge. Companies are competing with one another to hire good resources and jacking up the salaries offered. This results in people switching jobs for a significant salary improvement.
There is very little that a manager can do when employees work in an environment where employee's think of working in a company as long it suits them or till they get a better offer. And, the search for a better offer does not happen due to any "push" effect of the manager but more due to the "pull" effect.
Here is what I came yup with by crystal-ball gazing (the crystal ball is now pretty cloudy and filled with dust, but what-the-heck...it sure is some fun to look at it once in a while... Sensex/Nifty will make a dash for the all-time high sometime soon (maybe as early as October end) Either breach it or turn back just short of it. A bout of profit booking follows. Indices go down 10%-15% (back to around 18K-18.5K) Main indices remain sideways for the next couple of quarters. Mid caps move up from now as the last few weeks the valuation gap has widened. Sometime after 2-3 quarters, the next up move starts for the main indices. By that time, PE is down to about 22 (which is still high but certainly not hitting the roof). One point to consider is that the 2008 debacle is still fresh in the minds of most people, and as long as it remains, the sentiment of fear will be there. That will prevent the markets from having a runaway rally or a breakneck fall. I sure hope I am right!!!
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