holdyourthoughts

Is there a market bubble going on now? Is the markets going higher or lower? Should I put my money in the markets now? Will the markets crash? These are some of the questions I keep getting from people I know. Manias, panics, excesses, whatever you may decide to term them as, rarely come gift-wrapped announcing itself beforehand. Just the fact that everyone around is so cautious negates the herd mentality and makes it more difficult for the market to crash. So, does it mean, you should put all your money in the markets now? My answer to that is, "It depends...". Like in everything in life, investment is a very individual process and it is not possible to comment on personal investment decisions without having a good understanding of your aspirations, risk appetite, personality and other such traits. The best way to invest is to always look for undervalued stocks and periodically buying into them. Does it mean that there is no bubble in the markets? Where is so much liquidity ...

Here are the details of Indag Rubber:- The company is the the tyre retreading business. RoE is approx 32% and RoCE is 28.5% FY10 Sales is 111 cr and profit is 11.5 cr Market Cap is currently around 55 cr. i.e, Market Cap is lesser than prev year sales Dividend Yield of 3.8% Last 3 year PAT CAGR is 40% and Sales CAGR is 22% Current PE is around 4.7 Notes from Annual Report 2010 Increase in raw materials has exerted pressure on operating margins Expanded manufacturing capacity at its Nalgarh plant in Himachal Precured tread rubber production is now at 1200 tons per month and 1800 tons of uncured rubber gum Due to a increased demand of precured tread rubber, product accessories such as URSG and vulcanizing cement (both are basically the adhesive for pasting the tyres to the pretreads by the cold-bonding process) are also seeing increased demand Manufacturing is at 100% capacity for these additives, but demand is much greater. The increase in capacity will cater ...

Here is what I came yup with by crystal-ball gazing (the crystal ball is now pretty cloudy and filled with dust, but what-the-heck...it sure is some fun to look at it once in a while... Sensex/Nifty will make a dash for the all-time high sometime soon (maybe as early as October end) Either breach it or turn back just short of it. A bout of profit booking follows. Indices go down 10%-15% (back to around 18K-18.5K) Main indices remain sideways for the next couple of quarters. Mid caps move up from now as the last few weeks the valuation gap has widened. Sometime after 2-3 quarters, the next up move starts for the main indices. By that time, PE is down to about 22 (which is still high but certainly not hitting the roof). One point to consider is that the 2008 debacle is still fresh in the minds of most people, and as long as it remains, the sentiment of fear will be there. That will prevent the markets from having a runaway rally or a breakneck fall. I sure hope I am right!!! ...